Some ADRIS Predictions Revisited

<ed.note>I thought it might be an interesting exercise to revisit some predictions I made in the ADRIS Newsletter back in the day.</ed.note>

Association for
the
Development of
Religious Information
Systems
Newsletter

About
ADRIS

Back
Issues

VOLUME
27
NUMBER 3-4
ISSN 0300-7022
©Copyright 2000
Edward W.
Dodds, M.A.
Editor, ADRIS Newsletter
PO Box 210735
Nashville, TN
37221-0735 USA
E-mail:
editor@adris.org
Web: http://www.adris.org/

Dr. David O.
Moberg
ADRIS Coordinator
Professor Emeritus
Department of Social
and Cultural Sciences
Marquette University
7120 W. Dove
Court
Milwaukee, WI 53223-2766
E-mail:
domoberg@juno.com

 

Ed-itorial

Most of the content of previous
newsletters has been compiled from a variety of sources. The organization
has been loose at best. There have been general themes, however. In a
nutshell, the focus has been "How can we use these emerging
technologies to make our outreach more effective?"

ADRIS began with a strong mission to
make data available. This data was being gathered by disparate
organizations – and by nature of the technology of the time – it was
gathered in "proprietary" format. Since these formats were not
yet widely distributed, data tended to be "locked" in each
organization’s database and they were tedious and burdensome to
translate to another "proprietary" format.

I became involved with ADRIS just as
the Internet was becoming accessible to mainstream society. I had a hunch
that in time (although I was not certain which specific mechanism would be
adopted) this large network would provide a way for these databases (which
were being upgraded to more “networkable” versions) to interact with
one another. Key to this hunch was that it would not be just periodic
static posting of data from one base to another, but that they would
eventually be structured to work dynamically in real-time.

I came to the conclusion that it would
be a more efficient approach for ADRIS Newsletter to assume that
organizations would learn that there were several reasons why it would be
desirous for them to make their data available in such a manner. This
differed from the previous approach which ADRIS had utilized – that of
attempting to get copies of these databases and index and/or translate
them into one large data source.

As some of you know,
I work as an intranet/internet developer with Compuware Professional
Services (from 1999 to 2009) in Nashville, TN. In my day-to-day life I am charged with
research duties as well as proof of concept development at a variety of
large, global corporations. These companies serve as excellent test
beds to indicate which technologies will be eventually adopted by the
business community. This adoption, in turn, with the exception of the open
source movement, will determine into which directions software and
hardware makers are likely to point in upcoming development cycles.



I thought I would use
this issue of the Newsletter to discuss some upcoming trends that will
impact organizations of faith and non-profits. I hope you will react with
feedback while the article is being compiled. Any suggested links to
promising technologies are especially sought and criticism or reservations
are sought as well.
The falling are some trends I'm seeing…

Ed
Dodds,
editor@adris.org



Trend
#1  — XML (With or Without
SOAP) and internet data exchanges will be a reality in every sector

Sources
which indicate this trend:

Background of B2B

Biztalk

ebXML

XML/EDI

xmlhack

xml.org

<ed.note>This movement/philosophy is referred to now (2009) as "Open Data".</ed.note>


Trend
#2 
— Education and Religious Content to Develop Audio Book Virtual Libraries
available via Broadband Internet, Digital Radio, Satellite Radio, Wireless
Handhelds

Sources
which indicate this trend:


Christian
Digital Library Foundation

Digital
AM radio in the air


Future
Direction of Wireless Applications

Mobile
Learning: Is It Possible to Learn While On The Go? [Melissa Regan,
Assistant Director, Global Learning Partnership Program, Stanford Learning
Lab]

Takeshi
Natsuno, Executive Director, Gateway Business Department, NTT DoCoMo, Stanford
University Online Courses


Nokia
presents first integrated mobile multimedia device

Telemedicine
in the Press

Universalis.com

<ed.note>Insert standard iPod/iTunes University story here.</ed.note>

Trend
#3  –  "CLEP
TEST" Model for Distance Learning Degree Granting to be Adopted

Sources
which indicate this trend:

Collegedegree.com

Dantes
Distance Learning

Dantes
Tests

Ecollege.com

Mindedge
Online Degrees


Nurses
Can Earn Free CME Credits at Medscape.com

<ed.note>While the degree to which models of commercial higher ed schools, charter schools, home schools have multiplied — and with this a variety of distance and web-enabled ed models, the credentialing oligarchy is still in place. It is worth observing that undergraduate standards are being developed via an initiative under the auspices of the National Governors Association (with 47 States participating). I expect these credentialing folks to be overturned as the public becomes aware that the true bottleneck (say for nurses and doctors) is not the number of students who can enter programs (say medical school) but the number of folks/process society have deemed authoritative to determine competency on the outcomes side of the ed pipeline. The for-profit ed model will necessarily have to begin lobbying for alternative accreditation mechanisms within 5 to 10 years for their profitability to continue as their stock holders demand. Also, this just in at BusinessWeek.</ed.note>

Trend
#4 
— Direct Donation via Application Service Providers Signals the
downfall of  "UNITED WAY" Model Charities

Sources
which indicate this trend:

Direct
Deposit and Direct Payment Coalition

Jamcracker

Netledger

Seibel
eBusiness

TurboTax
For Tax Year 2000 Sets New Standard For Automated Tax Preparation: Giving
to Charity Just Got Easier

<ed.note>Note the growth of P2P-based development like Grameen Bank, Kiva, etc. and tools like Relational Tithing.</ed.note>

Trend
#5  — Massive Move Toward
Nonprofit Mergers as Geographical Concerns are removed by the Web

Sources
which indicate this trend:

New
Report Provides Models for Nonprofit Mergers and Alliances

Nonprofit
mergers mean better service

Nonprofit
Mergers: The perils and the possibilities

Re:
Nonprofit mergers

Urge
to Merge Affects Small Nonprofits

Trend
#6 
— Corporations, Nonprofit and Government Departments to Disclose Budget
Expenditures and other Pertinent Information Real-Time via the Web

Sources
which indicate this trend:

Center
for Digital Government Survey

Fair
Disclosure Rule

Public
Disclosure Commission


Reports
of Medical Errors in U.S. Hospitals
are

Strongly Influencing Where Americans Choose To Go
For
Their Health Care

Will
Internet Improve Voting?

Trend
#7 
— Computer-illiterate Management Publicly Identified via the Web
Should They Refuse to Improve Their Skill Sets

Sources
which indicate this trend:

BullyBusters

Corporate
Monitoring

Darwin
Magazine

Epinions

Eraiders

Execs
Must Make It Their Business To Understand IT

Interfaith
Center on Corporate Responsibility

Investors'
Bullhorn

Organizing
Online

Social
Funds
Shareholder
Action Network

TeacherReview.com

Workingwounded

Trend
#8  — Traditionally
"Independent" Industries Will Be Pressured By Government to
Standardize Metrics To Allow for Comparison (Flipside of Trend #1)

Sources
which indicate this trend:

Study
Predicts Huge HIPAA Privacy Compliance Costs

Trend
#9  — Traditionally Coddled
Employee Groups Incentivized to Computerize

Sources
which indicate this trend:

Pay
Incentive Lures Patent Office Workers Into Computer Age

Trend
#10  — Telecommuting from Home
Offices over Broadband Virtual Private Networks will take off when
computer-illiterate Mainstream Media begins reporting that
computer-illiterate Management, Stock Analysts, and Venture Capitalists are
forcing companies to use real estate charging inflated fees because they
lack skills to monitor Remote Workers 

Sources
which indicate this trend:

Telecommute
America

VPN
Source Page