GLOBAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEM (GEWS) WITH GLOBAL UNIVERSITY SYSTEM (GUS), April 20, 2011

By Dr. Takeshi Utsumi and MES Francisco Bozzano-Barnes
At the Seminar on “Knowledge, Technology and Society System”
Tannenbaum Seminar Series
Faculty House
Columbia University
Date: April 20

ABSTRACT

We will explain how knowledge can be harnessed as a resource – using dynamic modeling to develop future scenarios to identify sustainable paths with the participation of key stakeholders.

INTRODUCTION

GEWS

Purpose and objectives
This project will train local experts for leadership development, in relation to strategic use of technologies and cooperation among stakeholders for more effective advocacy, informed policy, public understanding and participation in concrete community development.

We will create the Globally Collaborative Network of the Centers for Conflict Prevention, Management and Resolution (GCN/CCPMRs) on economic, social and environmental issues in Rwanda and other countries, such as Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo, which will be interconnected through broadband Internet for developing the following two-tier system:

One for assisting decision makers developing and using a globally distributed decision-support system for wide-ranging policy analysis and evaluation with positive sum/win-win alternatives to crisis, conflict and war.The other for training young would-be decision makers, with a particular stress on young women’s participation, for understanding interwoven world phenomena with rational analysis and critical thinking, as well as in crisis management, conflict resolution, and negotiation techniques, based on “facts and figures”.

The specific socio-technical objectives of the project in Rwanda will include:

The development of national socio-economic, energy, health and environment dynamic simulation models, andThe creation of a center for a Global Early Warning System (GEWS) in Kigali, Rwanda, as a regional GEWS hub to promote and coordinate sustainable development strategies and crisis/conflict prevention initiatives in various parts of Rwanda as well as in other African countries in the region, particularly along the Nile River basin.
Technical Infrastructure
GEWS’ focus on a “paradigm shift” in the application of international political relations/science with the combined use of “normative (role-playing)” gaming with quantitative (model based) simulation is an advanced approach that sets a new and high standard in the search for human and sustainable development.

In using the most sophisticated university-based mathematical modeling techniques and social science skills of experts, graphic information modeling/mapping and potential “gaming” on key issues and solutions, the project will assist each country groups’ ability for standardized data gathering and situational analyses, projecting possible outcomes for more informed decision making and related activities.

With global cloud computing technology, we plan to develop a socio-economic-environmental simulation system and a climate simulation system in parallel fashion, both of which are to be interconnected on a global scale. Each GEWS is a linking project involving various countries, which will maintain the sub-models of their countries autonomously – along with construction and maintenance of its databases, modification of their sub-models, and supply of game players in cooperation with their overseas counterparts through the global Internet.

The dynamic simulation tool would support comprehensive, integrated long-term national development planning with comparative analysis of different policy options, and help users to identify the set of micro policies that tend to lead towards a desired goal. This insight into how different indicators of development interact with one another to produce an outcome, will deepen users understanding of development challenges.

The simulation model is built on the philosophy that national planning is an integrated process with consideration of economic, social and environmental variables for sustainable development. The simulation approach is an especially useful tool for preparing Poverty Reduction Strategies that emphasize the Millennium Development Goals (MDG), and for monitoring progress towards the MDGs or other national goals.